I think economist Steve Scranton summed it up best this year: “If times are good for you, keep doing what you are doing, but remain alert and prepared.”
My reading of a collection of articles for this supplement, written by local economists, cemented what most of us are already thinking, that the questions we had going into 2023 remain unanswered for 2024. But here’s the punchline: Fears of a full recession seem to have minimized, meaning a soft landing in 2024 is still very possible.
Adding some depth, our annual group of economists speak of continued work by the Fed to reach its inflation targets, conflicts around the world and in our own nation’s politics raising caution, the unexpected growth of 2023 has strengthened prospects, and consumer spending and confidence could become shaky.
One might take their insights in total as a call for calm resilience. We don’t want to cause our own slowdown by prematurely pumping the brakes, but we certainly want to know where the brake pedal is located in case it’s needed.
This is the 26th year the Journal of Business has partnered with Greater Spokane Incorporated and its predecessor to bring you the annual Economic Forecast event, and we are as proud as ever to be a part of that important partnership.
We are also proud to provide you with this companion supplement that puts into printed (and digital) word some of that which the event’s keynote speakers provide, and much more.
This year’s Economic Forecast event features economists Grant Forsyth, of Avista Corp.; Steve Scranton, of Washington Trust Bank; and Vange Ocasio Hochheimer, of Whitworth University, and their voices are included in this supplement.
But we didn’t stop there. Although longtime contributor Doug Tweedy, of the state Department of Employment Security, couldn’t write for us this year, we did also bring back Shaun O’L. Higgins, a retired executive with The Spokesman-Review and longtime economic forecaster here.
It is my hope that our authors’ insights and wisdom will help you understand the trends and risks ahead. Their varied approaches and perspectives make the supplement even more valuable.
My sincere thanks to each of them for helping make the publication possible, and also to GSI, for its long and cherished partnership with the Journal to make the annual Economic Forecast such a popular event.
Paul Read is publisher of the Journal of Business.