The war in Ukraine has shown the world that cheap drones and cameras make surprise moves of large formations almost impossible. The same cannot be said about the economic world. 
Last year the expectation was that in 2023 a recession was likely in the wake of the Fed’s efforts to curtail the post 2020 inflation. Yet here we are in late 2023, no recession yet and growth far above early year expectations. 

I have produced annual economic reviews and forecasts for the Inland Northwest for 42 years, and in those four-plus decades I have never been less certain about where the data I follow is pointing. 
Last year in this space I questioned, “Why, when so many traditional economic indicators looked so positive, are we were not feeling better about the state of our local/regional economy?” 

The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank closely tracks overall inflation, especially core inflation. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) is the inflation measure economists prefer to track as it excludes the volatility of energy and food prices. Excluding spikes in energy and food prices allows economists to disaggregate inflation and measure changes in the price of “core” or basic goods and services.