![Liberty lake2 web](https://www.spokanejournal.com/ext/resources/2024/08/13/thumb/Liberty-Lake2_web.jpg?1723705294)
The huffing and puffing throughout 2008 about shrewd investment maneuvers to be well-positioned for a new U.S. president have vanished into thin air.
From the economy to financial institutions to international terrorism, many of President-elect Barack Obama's top priorities will be handed to him as he takes the oath of office.
The entire U.S. government from Treasury to Federal Reserve to Congress will play a significant role in the future of our investments.
Expect dramatic events, successes, failures, and ongoing volatility. The shape in which the government leaves the troubled companies it touches, their shareholders, and bondholders remains to be seen.
The call for investment in solar, wind, and geothermal energy will be directly affected by the financial crisis.
"Moving away from dirty coal and toward green was considered to be important in an Obama administration, but where is the money going to come from?" asks Steven Goldman, chief market strategist with Weeden & Co. "Some government policy may not be on the front burner due to what's happening in the U.S. economy."
Even if postponed, basic goals will remain. With an Obama administration in mind, Suntech Power Holdings Co. Ltd (STP) has gained attention in solar energy, as has Energy Conversion Devices Inc. (ENER) in hybrid vehicle storage technology and Geron Corp. (GERN) in stem cell research.
As bailout is piled upon bailout and economic stimulus is tossed into the mix, some experts consider inflation and a gradually weakening U.S. dollar inevitable.
"The key stocks are the hard assets because the government's policy will create inflation long term, so gold, natural gas, and so on should do well," says Tom Jacobs, co-founder and portfolio manager of Complete Growth Investor, of Marfa, Texas. "But, of course, it all depends on the specific company's management, financials, and valuations."
Natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel, won't remain in the low $6 per thousand cubic foot range indefinitely, since large producers are slowing production to boost the price, says Jacobs. He recommends buying stock in natural-gas producers, as he is doing, then selling when natural gas hits the teens.
"The financial sector will be the one most influenced by what the government does, as it attempts to shore up solvency of the U.S. financial sector," says Heywood Kelly, chief of securities analysis for Morningstar Inc., in Chicago. "Decisions made by Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and the administration will be crucial in terms of who the winners and losers will be."
If the administration must commit a big chunk of time, effort, and resources to the financial sector, other segments such as alternative energy may suffer, Kelly expects.
"There are still extremely risky companies, and a lot depends on how the government decides to handle the various stakeholders," Kelly says. "Everything is cheap on the historical matrix, but the financial system has not faced anything near this level of catastrophe since the 1930s."
Following the theme of natural gas helping to meet energy needs, Jacobs considers stock of ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG), down 85 percent this year, "laughably cheap." That firm focuses on unconventional natural gas plays, which have no major competition from other oil and natural gas companies.
ATP's unique approach should reward investors, Jacobs says. With properties in the outer continental shelf of the Gulf of Mexico, ATP has proven reserves of more than 525 billion cubic feet of natural gas.
For mutual fund investing, Jacobs recommends that investors disregard this year's returns. Instead, "find the very best manager who is bombing this year and buy heavily," especially if his or her philosophy fits the times.
Jacobs points out Ken Heebner, well-respected portfolio manager of CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX), which is down 42 percent this year following last year's 80 percent gain.
Three-fourths of CGM Focus is in the agribusinesses, energy companies, and raw material producers that Jacobs considers likely winners during the first Obama term. The portfolio includes Schlumberger Ltd., Peabody Energy Corp., and Brazilian Petroleum Corp. Meanwhile, Heebner shorted some financials due to worrisome mortgage portfolios.
"I wouldn't touch any financials because they aren't within my circle of competence and truly not within most people's," Jacobs says.
Yet, industry leaders JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Bank of America Corp. (BAC) have been leading the way in modifying some of their existing mortgages.
"The talk is also that health care will be more encompassing and sectors such as generic drugs could benefit," Goldman says. "Infrastructure plays such as the power grid could also benefit on a relative basis."
Infrastructure includes the nation's crumbling highways and bridges to be rebuilt using government funds, something likely encouraged with unemployment high.
Among companies to benefit from the government revitalization of the U.S. highway system are Caterpillar (CAT), Cemex (CX), Chicago Bridge & Iron (CBI), Fluor Corp. (FLR), Granite Construction (GVA), Jacobs Engineering Group (JEC), and NCI Building Systems (NCS).
Mutual funds with exposure to transportation infrastructure stocks include Transamerica Premier Balanced Investors Fund (TBAIX) and the Muhlenkamp Fund (MUHLX).
Some potential government steps aren't popular with the investment community. "I think it would be a mistake for the government to fund the automakers," Jacobs says. "Provide assistance to workers, but the worldwide auto glut has been that way for over 10 years."