Weather has been a key concern this year for agricultural producers, but after a cool, wet spring, many industries are expecting high yields from later-than-usual harvests, according to the Northwest Farm Credit Services' Knowledge Center Market Snapshots.
The following highlights depict the general health of major farming and ranching sectors.
Beef: Cattle prices continue to spark optimism, with cow/calf pairs selling from $1,600 to $2,000 in recent weeks. The price for a 550-pound steer has moderated from recent highs but is still at record levels. Strong exports have helped offset flat domestic demand for beef. Year to date, beef shipments to Japan are up 81 percent from a year ago. Overall, producers are looking forward to another good year.
Wheat: Northwest wheat producers have dealt with an unfamiliar challenge this springtoo much rain. Regardless of which part of the Northwest they are in, producers cite hurdles surrounding planting, crop disease, and a delayed harvest. These challenges are helped by expectations of far above-average yields and prices.
Dairy: Northwest dairy producers' progress varied in the first half of 2011. In Washington state, improved and more stable milk prices supported most producers' profits through June. Dairymen in southern Idaho, however, faced lower milk prices and varying levels of profits or losses. Regardless of location, rising feed prices will continue to challenge Northwest dairy producers' bottom lines.
Apples: The outlook for the Northwest apple crop is cloudy. Current strength in the marketplace should carry over to the 2011-12 marketing year, but optimism is tempered by uncertainties around apple production. Fruit development will be closely monitored in the months ahead.
Hay: Hay supplies in the Northwest are tight. The 2011 season began with low hay inventories, and the cool, wet spring significantly delayed the first cutting. Although the region now is moving toward the second cutting, hay yields and quality have been impacted by adverse weather. Strong demand for new crop hay is driving prices toward levels not seen since 2008.
Forest Products: Log prices in the Northwest are declining following a six-month run-up in prices. The log market has reached a point where lumber prices won't support the mills' operating costs, and pricing is less attractive to export buyers. Lumber prices remain low given weak housing starts and excess processing capacity.
Cherries: A late harvest and large crop have challenged cherry growers. At 17.2 million 20-pound boxes, the cherry crop is forecast to be the second largest on record. This will be the first year where more cherries are available in August than in June.
Nursery/Greenhouse: Abnormal weather conditions early this spring eliminated sales opportunities for most producers. June sales, though, were significantly higher than the prior year with improved weather conditions. This year is expected to produce stronger sales results than 2010, but producers still face a sluggish market and escalating costs that further compress margins.
Potatoes: Potato crops throughout the Northwest are delayed, but in good condition. Weather and growing conditions across the next 60 days will determine final yields. Processors and the fresh market are competing for tight old-crop potato supplies. Producers are benefitting. Northwest potato markets mirror national markets, where prices are strong. Given the late 2011 crop, processors may experience August supply gaps.
Sugar Beets: Sugar beet crops look good with fewer acres replanted due to the wet spring. Industry analysts generally agree sugar prices will remain strong throughout the year, supported by tight supplies and growing demand.
Wine/Vineyard: After two years of sluggish activity, domestic wine retail sales grew 7 percent in 2010. The U.S. last year surpassed France as the world's largest wine-consuming nation. There is uncertainty around Washington's 2011 vintages due to two freeze events last winter. Approximately 20 percent to 30 percent of Washington's wine grape crop was damaged.
Knowledge center quarterly market snapshots at www.farm-credit.com/resources include information on 18 industries and periodic special reports. Also available on the resource pages are other knowledge center tools, land value survey and regular columns.
Farm Credit provides financing, related services and crop insurance to farmers, ranchers, agribusinesses, commercial fishermen, timber producers, and rural homeowners in Montana, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, and Alaska.