A recent survey of 200 business owners in Washington state found overall confidence in the economy to be slightly improved from August ratings, but Spokane respondents were less optimistic than their West Side and Tri-Cities/Wenatchee peers.
The Spokane business owners, who were selected at random, also were slightly less upbeat than respondents from those markets when asked about confidence in the health of their respective area's economy looking ahead to next year.
None of the survey respondents, though, regardless of their location in the state, showed anything much above a middling level of confidence about the economy in their areas.
In the third-quarter business confidence survey sponsored by Washington Trust Bank, Bellevue-based Hebert Research Inc. asked business owners how they rate current confidence in the economy on a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being the most confident.
For the November report, Spokane respondents rated their confidence in the regional economy with an average score of 4.2, while Seattle business owners gave an average score of 5. Meanwhile, for Bellevue and Tri-Cities/Wenatchee, the average scores were 5.4 and 4.8, respectively.
When asked about confidence in the future health of the regional economy looking ahead 12 months, the average score bumped up to 4.6 for Spokane, while Seattle respondents had an average score of 5.7. Bellevue came in at 5.6, and the Tri-Cities/Wenatchee ranked future confidence at 5.
Overall, counting all business owners surveyed in November, the economic confidence ranking averaged a 5, which was up from 4.4 in August.
"Overall confidence was down in August, so it's creeping back up again," says Jason Millet, a Bellevue-based research analyst for Hebert Research. "For September, October, and November, business owners are starting to feel a little bit more confident."
While Spokane confidence was only slightly lower than other cities on the current economic confidence poll, the gap seemed more apparent for economic health in the next year, Millet says.
"Spokane businesses didn't see as big of an improvement in the future," he says. "They don't expect to see as big of an improvement as Seattle businesses think there will be."
The questions are general and don't ask why respondents rank confidence higher or lower on the scale. Millet adds, "It's more to gauge how things change over time. It's for a quantitative score that allows us to compare one quarter to the next."
A majority of the business owners surveyed have fewer than 20 employees. For the November survey, just over 45 percent of the business owners polled had 10 or fewer full-time employees; 17 percent had 11 to 20 employees; 17 percent had 21 to 40 employees; almost 14 percent had 41 to 100 employees; and 7 percent had more than 100.
Statewide responses showed that three of 10 respondents expect business expenses and costs to increase by 1 percent to 5 percent in the next 12 months. About one-fifth foresee a possible expenses hike between 6 percent to 10 percent, while one-quarter of them expect no change. Only 16 percent thought that business expenses and cost would rise by more than 11 percent, while 6 percent expected costs to decrease.
In terms of revenues, almost four in 10 of those surveyed statewide thought there would be no change in revenue for the next 12 months compared with the prior year; three in 10 expect a 1 percent to 10 percent increase; and 17 percent forecasted an 11 percent to 25 percent increase. Only 8 percent thought revenue would decrease, while 9 percent saw revenue increasing by more than 26 percent.
For another survey question that asked how business owners rated the overall business climate in Washington state, Seattle respondents gave an average score of 4.3; Bellevue, 4.7; Tri-Cities/Wenatchee, 4.1, and Spokane, 3.