Business executives are growing increasingly confident about prospects for the U.S. economy and their own organizations during the next 12 months, says a first-quarter American Institute of Certified Public Accountants economic outlook survey, which polls chief financial officers, controllers, and other certified public accountants in executive and senior management accounting roles.
The CPA Outlook Index, a gauge of executive sentiment within the survey, rose five points to 69, a post-recession high that matches the index score from the first quarter a year ago. The index is a composite of nine, equally weighted survey measures set on a scale from 0 to 100, with 50 considered neutral and numbers above that signifying positive sentiment.
While each of the nine components increased compared with fourth quarter 2011 readings, the fastest-rising element of the index is optimism about the U.S. economy, which jumped from 40 points to 61. It had fallen to as low as 25 points in the third quarter of 2011. Still, while the component has gone up dramatically during the past two quarters, it continues to be the lowest-scoring measure in the index.
"Optimists now outnumber pessimists on the U.S. economy by an almost 2-to-1 margin, which is a striking change from six months ago," says Carol Scott, AICPA's vice president for business, industry, and government. "While a substantial number of respondents remain neutral, we're seeing a clear shift toward a more positive outlook for the coming year."
Business executives also foresee better things for their own companies. Some 55 percent said they were optimistic or very optimistic about the outlook for their organizations during the next 12 months, compared with 45 percent last quarter.
"This is the second strong survey result in a row," says Jim Morrison, chief financial officer of Teknor Apex Co. "We still have a long way to go to feel really good about the economy, but all the arrows are pointing up."
Among other findings of the survey, some 14 percent of survey takers said they are planning to add new staff immediately, a slight increase over last quarter. Almost one in five respondents said their company needs to hire more employees but is hesitating until the economy improves. Fifty-seven percent said they had the right number of workers.
The technology sector is expected to add the most jobs during the next 12 months. Health care providers, such as hospitals and nursing homes, are projected to add the least.
Some 61 percent of respondents said they expected to expand their business at least a little during the next 12 months, and almost 57 percent of survey takers said they planned to increase their information-technology budget to some degree during that period.