Eastern Washington farmers say drier weather in many areas this year means they expect slightly lower to average wheat crop yields, unless more rain falls before harvest starts next month.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that Washington state's 2013 winter wheat crop is expected to total 119.7 million bushels, about 1 percent above last year. A forecast to include the anticipated spring wheat crop outcome won't be available until next month, and when factoring in those crops, several farmers say they expect overall wheat production to total about the same or down a bit from yields a year ago.

Besides weather, wheat producers also are watching closely the response of overseas buyers as USDA concludes an investigation of what it calls "a single isolated incident" of unapproved genetically modified wheat discovered last month at a northeast Oregon farm.

Amid the discovery, Japan and Korea temporarily postponed imports of U.S. soft white wheat in recent weeks, while accepting other varieties, as they continue to study information from U.S. officials to determine what, if any, future action may be required, a USDA statement says.

USDA is investigating the surprise appearance in Oregon of a small number of volunteer wheat plants that tested positive for a genetically engineered variety that was developed years ago by Monsanto Co.—but never approved to be grown commercially—and that's resistant to Monsanto's Roundup weed killer product. A farmer discovered it after applying Roundup and the plants didn't die.

In a June 14 statement, USDA said it provided a DNA test method for detecting the specific Monsanto genetically engineered variety to trade partners requesting it. The agency also said the wheat variety doesn't pose a food safety concern, and that it's still investigating how it got in the field.

"As of today, USDA has neither found nor been informed of anything that would indicate that this incident amounts to more than a single isolated incident in a single field on a single farm," it said.

Many growers here say they expect Japan, as the No. 1 importer of U.S. soft white wheat, to resume purchases of that variety, which is grown mostly in Eastern Washington—with assurances that the U.S. doesn't commercially produce any genetically modified wheat.

"Japan has kind of postponed their purchases; I think they're waiting for what the USDA investigation shows," says Glen Squires, CEO of Washington Grain Commission and the Washington Association of Wheat Growers. "It may result in needing a testing protocol. We don't know. Japan may want that, or they may conclude there is no need. Japan may decide it is something that was isolated."

Eric Maier, a Ritzville-area wheat producer who is Washington Association of Wheat Growers' legislative chairman, says farmers are watching the Oregon investigation closely because the Pacific Northwest exports about 90 percent of their annual crop of soft white wheat. Much of it goes to Japan for noodle production. Other top buyers are Korea and Taiwan, Maier says.

"Keep in mind that Japan has zero tolerance for GMO (genetically modified organism) wheat; there is no GMO wheat produced anywhere in the world commercially," he adds. "We have to get Japan comfortable with what's been investigated."

For this year's wheat crop, less favorable weather conditions—with frosts in April and overall lower precipitation so far in many areas—are contributing to the forecast of a slight reduction in average yields compared with last year's crop. That crop totaled 146 million bushels, including both winter and spring wheat harvests.

The state's most recent bumper crop came in 2011, when statewide production reached 167.8 million bushels.

Maier says the drier weather conditions in many areas of Eastern Washington have hurt many growers. He adds, however, that Eastern Washington has varied microclimates and some farms on the Palouse and near Spokane have had more adequate rain. Some of those farmers expect average to above average crops.

"It's not going to be a bin buster by any means," Maier says about the current crop. "We had a frost in the mid to low teens that did some damage in April. The other problem this year is, we're very dry. I'm trying to grow 42 to 45 bushels per acre on 11 inches of annual precipitation, and it's really been closer to 7 to 8 inches."

Squires, meanwhile, says the anticipated wheat crop outcome is best described as mixed.

"Overall, our yields on average are going to be lower than last year," Squires says.

"There was a lot of moisture in the winter, but then it started getting really dry really fast," he adds.

Wheat prices for soft white wheat have dropped in the past month, from about $8 per bushel around mid-May to about $7.30 as of June 13, but Inland Northwest farmers say it's not uncommon for grain prices to soften prior to harvesting in July and August as buyers await the new wheat stock.

Ryan Kile, a Colfax-based relationship manager for Northwest Farm Credit Services, of Spokane, says the big agricultural lender and crop insurance provider has calculated a current break-even price for most of their producers at between $6 and $6.50 net per bushel to cover expenses.

"They need at least that to cover all expenses and living cost needs," Kile says. "Overall input costs are still high for fertilizer, fuel, and chemicals."

Randy Suess, who operates a Colfax-area wheat farm and is past chairman of the U.S. Wheat Associates, says it's difficult to gauge whether the genetically modified wheat found on the Oregon farm is impacting prices, since they tend to fall just prior to harvest.

"Wheat (price) has a tendency to drop this time of year as we get close to harvest and there isn't a lot of soft white wheat left in the bin, so how much of an impact that has had is hard to say," Suess says. "It depends on the corn market too. If corn drops, we usually do too."

Kile says he also is hearing from customers that the current winter wheat crop looks good in certain regions, especially through the Palouse areas that typically receive higher rainfall.

"There will be some lower yield production compared to previous years because earlier this spring we had some hard freezes," Kile says.

Meanwhile, chickpea production is on the rise as a state crop. Acreage in Washington state has jumped from less than 10,000 acres in year 2000 to nearly 80,000 acres last year as U.S. consumers buy more hummus products, the Moscow, Idaho-based USA Dry Pea & Lentil Council says.

Also called garbanzo beans, chickpeas are canned or used in salads as well. Nationwide, hummus spread sales reached nearly $300 million based on 2010 market research, and they're expected to grow further.

"We're seeing most of our customers are increasing the number of acres they're producing garbanzos," Kile adds.

Many wheat farmers plant the garbanzos as a rotational crop, meaning rotating a wheat crop that's grown on a portion of acreage with garbanzos, lentils, or peas grown in a following season. Kile says most of the garbanzo crops are in the Palouse areas south of Colfax and toward Moscow.

The garbanzos usually aren't harvested until September, he adds, and farmers who grow the smaller beans used for hummus typically sell them under contract for about 24 cents to 26 cents per pound. Larger beans for canned products or salads are at about 37 cents to 38 cents a pound, he says.

Farmers also are eyeing what Congress does this year to pass a new farm bill. With last year's federal budget crisis, lawmakers decided to extend the five-year 2008 Farm Bill for nine months, with plans to pass a new measure this fall. The U.S. Senate passed its version of the new farm bill earlier this month, and a House version was expected to head to the floor for a vote this week.

A large portion of farm bill funding goes toward food stamps, and proposals call for trimming that cost somewhat and making it harder for some people to qualify.

A House version also eliminates some farm subsidies, including $5 billion a year in support that pays farmers whether they farm or not.

New proposals would expand some subsidies, creating a new crop insurance program and boosting support for several individual crops. The Senate's passage includes a provision for a pilot study for school meals to include more peas, lentils, and chickpeas.

U.S. Senator Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., says the Pulse School Pilot provision would provide the USDA $10 million through 2017 to buy peas, lentils, and chickpeas for use in school meals to enhance nutritional value. Cantwell said in a press release about the provision that Washington state is the top chickpea producer in the nation, and third in the nation for pea and lentil production.

"The value of pea, lentil, and chickpea shipments handled via the Seattle/Tacoma Port District reached nearly $130 million in 2011—up from roughly $5 million in 2001," the release said.