After reviewing first-quarter auto sales and macroeconomic trends, Edmunds.com Inc., the Santa Monica, Calif.-based automotive website, is raising its auto sales forecast to 15.5 million for 2013.
The industry hasn't achieved that level of annual sales since 2007, and if the projection holds true, it would be an increase of 1 million car sales compared with the 14.5 million sales reported in 2012.
Edmunds.com Chief Economist Lacey Plache says the company sees a number of reasons for the automotive industry to be optimistic about car sales for the rest of the year.
"Car shoppers seem unfazed by fiscal issues in the news," Plache says. "Even though consumer confidence has been up and down so far this year, there are wealth effects that are making Americans feel comfortable finally buying the new cars they've been waiting for."
She says that many people are feeling wealthier thanks to rising home prices and the strong stock market. Many haverefinancedtheir home mortgages, which she estimates could save a homeowner $210 per month on an average mortgage and make room in a household budget for a new car payment.
The improving labor market has put additional cash in some buyers' pockets, she says, and credit has been loosening more since the recovery began, which is key to car sales.
The fiscal cliff, the sequester, and financial news from overseas haven't had any noticeable impact on car shopping trends in 2013, Plache says.
Looking ahead, Plache says, the industry has an ace up its sleeve: More car leases are set to expire in the second half of this year than the comparable period last year, which means that a number of car shoppers will be in the market then regardless of the state of the economy. That is likely to give the industry a solid year-over-year increase even when taking into account the strong 2012 finish.