Out-of-state drivers’ license surrenders, one of the indicators of new residents moving into the area, remained flat in Spokane County for the second year in a row in 2013. 

Online data compiled by the Washington State Department of Licensing showed that drivers surrendered a total of 8,206 out-of-state licenses in the county last year. That was a slight rise of 26 licenses, or about 0.3 percent, from the 8,180 licenses surrendered in 2012. The average number of licenses surrendered per month last year was 683. Drivers new to Washington typically surrender their licenses and obtain Washington licenses when establishing residency. 

Grant Forsyth, chief economist for Avista Corp., of Spokane, has said he typically expects to see license surrenders and corresponding in-migration rise as employment here improves. Employment grew close to 2 percent last year in Spokane and Kootenai counties combined—a rate that hasn’t been seen since 2007—but that rate of growth is projected to ease a bit this year, which raises questions about whether driver’s license surrenders might decline.

 “This last year we’ve had pretty good employment growth, so I’d expect to see a bit of improvement in population growth going into 2014,” Forsyth says.

He says, however, that he anticipates a slight drop in employment gains overall this year, which could suggest weaker population growth in 2015. Part of the employment rise in 2013, he says, was due to a large amount of construction projects beginning that year, but most of the workers for those projects already have been hired. 

“My guess is that big surge isn’t going to happen in 2014,” he says. “Most companies already have their construction crews in place. My current forecast is for 1.5 percent employment growth for Spokane and Kootenai counties combined, which puts us in line with the rest of the U.S.” 

 While Forsyth says that, based on his observations, population growth here has picked up from last year, he doesn’t believe it’s rising quickly. 

“I can’t say it’s screaming forward,” he says. “But it looks to me like we’re finally in the 1 percent annual population growth rate.” 

Forsyth also says the recovery in the housing market is making it easier for people to sell their homes and move.

Patrick Jones, executive director of the Eastern Washington University Institute for Public Policy and Economic Analysis, says employment here still appears to be trending upward, and he adds, “Usually population and job growth are highly correlated.”

Information on the Community Indicators Initiative of Spokane website shows that residual net migration last year accounted for 0.5 percent of the total population in Spokane County. Residual net migration is calculated by taking the population for the year, subtracting the previous year, and then also subtracting the number of births and deaths. The information shows a residual net migration of 2,484 people last year. 

Based on previous years’ data, Jones also believes that population could trend up this year. 

Information published by the Spokane-Kootenai Real Estate Research Committee shows that California and Idaho are the top states for surrendering licenses in Spokane County. Since 1995, California has been the top state 15 times, and Idaho held the top spot four times. 

For Washington state overall, the Department of Licensing report says that a total of about 148,000 driver’s licenses were surrendered in 2013 in the state, a 3.4 percent increase from the previous year. The top three inbound states were California with about 28,000 surrendered licenses, Oregon with about 18,000, and Texas with about 9,000. 

The Real Estate Research Committee report also shows that the number of Washington state driver’s licenses surrendered in other states totaled nearly 42,000 in 2013. 

In Kootenai County, information for 2013 license surrenders wasn’t listed in the report, but in 2012 the county saw 4,549 surrenders. That was a jump of almost 20 percent from 2011, when there were 3,794 licenses surrendered.