The National Retail Federation is predicting holiday sales will increase by 4.1 percent this year to $616.9 billion, marking the first time since 2011 the organization has predicted a rise of more than 4 percent. Here, retailers are echoing the NRF’s predictions, saying they anticipate strong holiday sales as well.

Bryn West, general manager at River Park Square, says the mall has been experiencing strong sales in November and is anticipating the same for December. 

“It’s a regular shopping season; the weeks aren’t off like they have been in previous years,” she says. “We’re expecting an increase over last year … which is amazing in itself, considering it was a strong holiday last year.”

According to the NRF, last year’s actual national increase was 3.1 percent. The organization also says holiday sales have increased by 2.9 percent annually during the last 10 years. This year, holiday sales are expected to represent 19.2 percent of the retail industry’s $3.2 trillion in annual sales.  

West says River Park Square is anticipating an increase of 2 percent to 3 percent in sales over last year. She says the mall has seen holiday sales increases consistently every year since 2011, since the economic recovery began.

“(Holiday shopping) seems to be in lockstep with consumer confidence,” she says. 

River Park Square hosted its first seasonal job fair in September for merchants and prospective seasonal employees to come together, she says

“Quite a few of our merchants expressed interest,” she says. 

Job seekers brought resumes and were interviewed, and in some cases, were offered seasonal positions on the spot, West says. She says there isn’t any way to know how many were actually hired, but says that a few hundred people attended the event. 

 “We’ve found merchants are hiring earlier this year as well,” West says. “I think with the predictions of a stronger season, which started in November instead of December this year, people wanted to get staff in and trained so they would be prepared.”

The NRF has predicted that holiday hiring will account for between 725,000 and 800,000 jobs this year nationally. Last year, retailers hired an additional 768,000 workers, the organization says, a 14 percent increase over 2012. 

Doug Tweedy, a Spokane-based regional labor economist with the state Employment Security Department interviewed late last month, says that agency also noticed an uptick in seasonal hiring beginning in October. 

“That’s been continuing through November,” he says. 

Tweedy says the department is predicting seasonal hiring data will show growth of 4.5 percent statewide, and 4.3 percent in Spokane County, for October, November, and December this year. 

“Which means, for Spokane County, an additional 1,000 jobs in retail, leisure, and hospitality this year,” he says. “And through November, we’ve been running right on projection.”

This projection is an increase compared with the 2013 holiday employment increase, which was 2 percent statewide over 2012. Tweedy says the increase is partially due to the improving economy. 

“Absolutely, consumers are getting more confident with the economy and buying more,” he says. “That’s even in the face of Internet buying, so that’s a vote of confidence for the future.”

West also says that two newer stores at River Park Square, women’s athletic retailer Athleta and women’s clothing, jewelry, and accessories boutique Francesca’s, which both opened this year, have been doing well.

“Both of those really filled a niche that we didn’t have at River Park Square,” she says. “When we’re looking at bringing in new stores, it’s really about filling our retail niche and filling the gaps that we don’t have.”

West says the mall expects to announce several new stores at the beginning of the year. 

“We have several that we’re working with currently,” she says. 

West says that River Park Square aims to create full experiences for families, with events such as having Santa in the mall. 

“We really strive to make families feel like this is a place of tradition,” she says. 

Shop.org, the digital division of the National Retail Federation, predicted in October that online sales will rise between 8 percent and 11 percent this year over last, amounting to as much as $105 billion in sales. Online sales grew 8.3 percent in 2013, the organization says. 

West asserts, though, that the overall shopping experience at traditional malls enables them to keep up with online sales. 

 “Bricks and mortar are still very strong, because again, it’s about that experience,” she says. 

Jen Menzer, manager of novelty shop Boo Radley’s, at 232 N. Howard downtown, says that store usually sees holiday sales start to pick up the week of Thanksgiving. 

“That’s the week we (usually) see that, with college kids coming home and grade school being out,” she says. 

However, Menzer says that the store’s biggest retail day typically is Small Business Saturday, which is the day after Black Friday. 

“Black Friday is like a really busy normal Friday for us, but not crazy like at the big box stores,” she says.

Small Business Saturday was first launched by New York City-based American Express Co. on Nov. 27, 2010, as a way to drive shoppers toward their local community businesses. 

Menzer says shoppers also might be looking to get gifts early this year, with the short holiday season.  

“Everyone starts to get in that frenzy, especially with the shorter holiday season,” she says.  “It’s one month, turkey to Jesus.”

Menzer says one of the key strategies at Boo Radley’s is to try to identify the trendy items that year, and stock up on them. This year, Menzer says, the hot gift item is socks. 

“Every year, we try and figure out that one great thing,” she says. “And everyone already gets socks for Christmas.”

Menzer says she doesn’t have too many concerns about the retail season, barring any extreme weather or road construction. 

“A huge snowstorm can throw you for a loop,” she says. “The road construction can (also) be a hassle.”

Boo Radley’s has about six regular employees, Menzer says. During the holidays, the store will take on some family members of employees who want to help out, she says, usually leading to about eight employees during the holidays. 

Nicholas Flatoff, manager of Chocolate Apothecary, a specialty chocolate retailer located inside the Flour Mill retail complex at 621 W. Mallon, says the store usually sees a significant spike in sales during the holiday season. 

“Especially with chocolates, it’s our highest revenue season,” he says. “We also bring in some higher quality, seasonal stuff.”

Flatoff says the shop usually sees a revenue increase of 20 percent to 30 percent between the week of Thanksgiving and Christmas. 

The store also experienced solid holiday sales last year, Flatoff says. 

“It was pretty hopping,” he says. “Some days we were doing twice the revenue.”

As far as any concerns about the upcoming retail season, Flatoff says he doesn’t have many. 

“We’re not worried about anyone getting trampled or anything,” he says. 

John Schwartz, manager of Spokane outdoor retailer Mountain Gear, located at 2002 N. Division, says that stores November sales have held consistent with previous years.

“I would call it an average month,” he says. “We could use more snow. It hasn’t been down, but it hasn’t been up.”

However, Schwartz says he’s predicting overall holiday season sales to be up slightly over last year. He also says Mountain Gear doesn’t hire any seasonal employees, and has 15 permanent employees.