After respectable – albeit slower – gains in employment this year, Spokane-area economists are projecting up to 1.5% growth in jobs next year.

That would equate to roughly 3,000 new jobs in the Spokane Metropolitan Statistical Area in 2020, which would be on pace with this year’s growth, according to Doug Tweedy, Spokane-based regional economist with the Washington state Employment Security Department.

Tweedy says one factor contributing to his projection is the lack of reported, significant layoffs in the Spokane area to date and a lack of initial claims for unemployment, which are at record lows.

“We’re positioned well for the future,” he says. 

That said, Avista Corp. chief economist Grant Forsyth says 1.5% growth in jobs is at the top end of his projected range for 2020, with no growth in total employment being at the lower end of that range.

Forsyth acknowledges that’s a wide range, but he says the number of uncertain economic factors now makes it difficult to narrow that range. Many indicators suggest an economic slowdown is underway already, he says, but it’s unclear whether those early warning signs are signaling changes that will have a profound effect.

“I’m having a hard time determining if this is going to be a gentle deceleration or something worse,” he says.

The overarching economic factors he’s referring to include the trade wars’ effects on financial markets, which could affect consumer behavior. He points out that consumer spending is growing now, but other parts of the economy have essentially flat growth. If consumer spending declines, there doesn’t appear to be another part of the economy that will put up that slack.

Also, he says, growth outside of the U.S. and Canada isn’t strong, which could have some negative effects domestically.

“Because of that, I have some concerns about where job growth is going to end up in 2020,” Forsyth says.

In the combined Spokane County-Kootenai County area, Forsyth says about 5,000 jobs have been added this year, a 1.7% year-over-year increase. While that’s historically strong job gains, it’s a slower pace than had been recorded in the region during the previous three years.

Tweedy says that since the Great Recession, the Spokane MSA has added 30,000 jobs in all.

“I’m excited about the mix of jobs, because it’s at all levels,” he says. “A lot of the industries are recession resistant.”

Much of the growth during the current expansion is in health care jobs. This year, that includes additional positions in health care-related education.

“The important thing to remember is these are very good jobs with good wages,” Tweedy says.

He adds that manufacturing employment has increased this year as well. 

In 2020, Tweedy expects some gains in employment to come in the manufacturing and distribution sectors, due in large part to the anticipated opening of the Amazon.com Inc. fulfillment center on the West Plains. Amazon has reported it plans to hire 1,500 people to work there. 

“That growth won’t just be with Amazon, but with companies that do business with Amazon,” Tweedy says.