Retail sales in Spokane are expected to continue to decelerate in 2024, yet remain buoyed by the economy's strong labor market, says Patrick Jones, executive director of Eastern Washington University's Institute of Public Policy and Economic Analysis. 

In the first two quarters of 2023, Spokane County retail sales grew by about 3%, down from 5.5% growth in the last quarter of 2022. Historically, Spokane County has averaged 5% in retail sales growth, Jones adds.

Full-year growth likely will be around 2%, he says, "And that's being optimistic." 

Unless there's another extraordinary event like the pandemic, trends in retail sales will depend on the rate of growth of personal income, Jones says. 

The forecast for personal income growth in Washington State is in the 5% range, he adds. 

"That tells me that retail sales shouldn't drop off a cliff," he says. "I think the major source of optimism for our country and our community is just the really surprising resilience of our labor market." 

The robust labor market is reason to have an optimistic outlook for retail sales in 2024, says Jones. However, current elevated interest rates, which affect large purchases, such as automobiles, likely will continue to slow down retail sales.

Bryn West, vice president at Cowles Real Estate, says retailers at River Park Square saw more foot traffic in 2023, despite the delay in film releases caused by the actors' and writers' strikes over the spring and summer months. 

 "There are some big releases that were delayed, and it's unfortunate because having great movies and great sales brings tons of people downtown to shop and see movies and go to dinner", she says. 

Anthony Anton, president and CEO of the Washington Hospitality Association, says that the first three to six months of 2024 likely will bring the last round of COVID-related restaurant closures. 

There are a lot of unknowns for the restaurant industry next year, he says. Hospitality operators continue to face increased costs and a labor shortage that might propel many to look toward new technology to make up for workforce shortages. 

"I'm hopeful that after the first three months of the year, we can start to look forward again," says Anton.