Spokane and Coeur dAlene are almost certainly destined to become a combined metropolitan statistical area in the eyes of everyone from the federal government to national retailers, says a report published in August by the U.S. Census Bureau.


It would be a remarkable turn of events if it didnt happen, Randy Barcus, Avista Corp.s chief economist, says of the combined statistical designation.


The issue has taken on great importance regionally, as proponents argue that a combined statistical area would benefit the Inland Northwest in many ways, while opponentsmost notably, Coeur dAlenes daily newspaperargue that it threatens the Idaho citys identity.


Spokane and Coeur dAlene already are listed as a combined statistical area in the August report from a key federal government committee made to the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the agency that has final say on the statistical-area issue. The committee is charged with making final recommendations to OMB on an overhaul of the Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) system, including the process for combining statistical areas. The committees report uses 1990 data to show which cities would qualify as combined areas, based on the level of commuting between the cities.


Spokane and Coeur dAlene are listed as the Spokane WA-ID combined area in that report.


If Spokane and Coeur dAlene qualify as a combined statistical area using 1990 data, theyre almost sure to do so using data from the 2000 census, Barcus says.


For the situation to be otherwise, We would have to assume that cross-border commuting (between Spokane and Coeur dAlene) had gotten less rather than more, and I dont think theres a soul alive that believes that cross-border commuting has declined, he says.


Barcus points to the strong pace of new-home construction in Kootenai County in the past few yearswhich is not matched evenly by job growthas evidence that many people are choosing to live in Kootenai County and work elsewhere, presumably in Spokane.


Commuting data from the 2000 census wont be available until about 2002, and the new statistical-area designations wont be adopted until 2003.


If commuting data show strong linkage between the two areas, there will be an automatic statistical combination under a new core-based statistical area (CBSA) system. If the level of commuting doesnt reach that threshold, OMB will solicit local opinion to make its decision on whether to combine Spokane and Coeur dAlene.


No matter what happens with the combined-area issue, Coeur dAlene is sure to benefit from the federal governments replacement of the current metropolitan statistical area (MSA) system with one relying on core-based statistical areas, Barcus says.


Whether Spokane and Coeur dAlene are designated as a combined area or are kept separate, under the CBSA system, Coeur dAlene still would qualify as a micropolitan area, while Spokane would be designated a metropolitan area, the census bureau report says.


Currently, Coeur dAlene doesnt show up on lists of MSAs nationwide, and for many purposes, the most specific data available is for Kootenai County as a whole.


Barcus says he believes Coeur dAlene will be the subject of more specific and frequent data-gathering as a micropolitan area.


Kathryn Tacke, labor market analyst for the Idaho Department of Labor, in Coeur dAlene, says that may or may not be true. It is clear, however, that if the statistical-area combination comes to fruition, the data-gathering arms of both state governments would have to make adjustments so that their efforts would be synchronized, she says.


Itll change a little bit how things are done, Tacke says. In some ways, itll be very powerful to have the two communities recognized as one economic entity.


The combined statistical-area designation is important because such designations often determine how much federal funding goes to a specific area.


In the case of Coeur dAlene, for example, Kootenai Medical Center would stand to receive $4.8 million more per year in revenue because of higher Medicare reimbursement rates if Spokane and Coeur dAlene were combined as a statistical area, says Tom Legel, the hospitals chief financial officer. All physicians, nursing homes, and home health-care agencies in Coeur dAlene stand to benefit similarly, he says.


For us, its a significant deal, Legel says. Earlier, KMC had estimated additional revenue of $3 million a year.


Others in Coeur dAlene, including the Coeur dAlene Press, oppose the statistical combination. The newspaper, which is owned by North Idaho publisher Duane Hagadone, has editorialized against the combination a number of times this year, saying that Spokane only is interested in the combination to bolster its lackluster economy, and that the move would threaten Coeur dAlenes identity.


The potential upside for the region, however, is high, proponents say. National retailers who are looking for new store sites and companies that are seeking sites for relocation or expansion frequently use statistical-area designations to narrow their list of choices. A combined Spokane-Coeur dAlene area would exceed 500,000 in total population, which many statisticians say is an important threshold.


Barcus says a further benefit of the proposed CBSA system is that its clear-cut: Changes are made only if dictated by statistics.


The system will eliminate as much as possible the gaming and political persuasion that has occurred in the past as decisions on combined areas have been made around the country, he says.