British historian Thomas Macaulay famously said, “The best government is one that desires to make the people happy and knows how to make them happy.”

That standard is clearly not what people are experiencing in Washington state. For years, leaders in state government have been increasing the tax burden and imposing ever-tighter regulations that limit personal opportunity, lower household incomes, and fall hardest on working people, middle-class families, and small business owners. 

We all know that bad government makes people want to leave, but how does one measure that exactly? One method is to use U.S. Census estimates. Another is to track income tax filings with the IRS. For independent researchers, however, these government sources are often out of date.

There is one data source, though, showing where people are moving that is highly accurate and reported in near-real time: U-Haul rentals. Because rented trucks, trailers, and moving vans have to be returned locally after use, U-Haul knows exactly where its customers are moving to, and just as importantly, from what states they are fleeing.

And because it is the largest do-it-yourself mover, this private company is well-positioned to reflect current national trends.

The latest annual report from U-Haul on some 2 million, one-way household moves in 2020 shows Washington dropping precipitously from the coveted number five spot as most desired place to live all the way down to number 36. That position of unpopularity is not as bad as California, at number 50, but it is a long way from top-ranked Tennessee, Texas, and Florida as the most-sought destinations for one-way U-Haul movers.

The three most popular states on the list have one good policy factor in common; none of them impose a tax on personal income. Washington state has the same advantage, which is likely the single greatest reason our state hasn’t seen even more people move away.

Still, to fall 31 places in one year is no compliment and reflects the fact that, in a year that was tough on everyone, people in Washington had it tougher than most. The governor’s emergency executive orders, issued in March, remain firmly in place with little sign of wider economic opening or easing of social restrictions in the immediate future.

The result is an economic and emotional strain that feels worse every passing week. While other states and even whole countries are progressively opening their economies with health guidelines, Washington, California, and others remain in a limited lockdown.

When health conditions improve and COVID restrictions are over, things will undoubtedly improve, but our underlying high-tax, high-regulation governing policies will remain. The health crisis is temporary, but with the structural burden of poor governance, Washington is likely to continue to fall down the list, until one day we may earn the unhappy distinction of becoming the No. 1 place people want to leave.

Of course, our elected leaders hopefully will choose a better path, building on our having no income tax, the natural beauty of our region, and our friendly communities to add more good reasons for people to move to, instead of away from, the Evergreen State.

Paul Guppy is the vice president for research at Seattle-based Washington Policy Center.