Another round of U.S. military base closures is loomingone perhaps as big as the previous four rounds combinedand with it Fairchild Air Force Base will become part of a high-stakes poker game.


Win, and the base probably would grow, bringing new economic vitality to the Spokane area. Lose, and the base, which is Spokanes largest employer, would close, eliminating nearly 6,000 military and civilian jobs and close to $1 billion a year in economic impacts.


From Spokanes standpoint, there is no drawstatus quo isnt likely.


All rationale says that Fairchild has a pretty good chance of not being included on the closure list, says Fred Zitterkopf, who was assistant civil engineer at the base for 22 years.


Yet, he warns, theres going to be some strong competition.


Zitterkopf, who retired in 1999, is part of the Spokane Regional Chamber of Commerces armed services committee, which already has begun working to try to keep Fairchild off the base-closure list.


Longtime Spokane economic-development specialist Joe Tortorelli, who chairs that committee and has been a member of it for 30 years, says, Theres always a chance we can be put on the list. There are some things we have very little control over.


On the list in 93


The process of targeting bases for closure will gear up soon, although the final closure list wont be approved until late 2005.


Every U.S. military installation must start the process by preparing a document that spells out how it and its surrounding community measure up against other bases in hundreds of ways, from crime rates to housing affordability to the level of community support for the base.


Rob Fortenberry, community-relations chief at Fairchild, says the base expects to receive by December the criteria it must address in that survey. Neither he nor anyone at the U.S. Department of Defense is allowed to speculate about an individual bases chances of making the closure list.


The Defense Department will use the information submitted by the bases to develop recommendations for facilities it believes should be closed or realigned, since one of the goals of the 2005 closure round is to consolidate functions between bases when it makes sense, Fortenberry says. The recommended base-closure list will be released in May 2005.


A nine-member base-closure commission will have a chance to review the list and modify it, then forward it to the president in September of that year. Both the president and Congress must approve or reject the entire listthere are no line-item privileges to add bases to the list or to strike specific ones from it.


Base-closure rounds that took place in 1988, 1991, 1993, and 1995 together shut down 97 major military bases, or about 20 percent of the total U.S. capacity. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has said that at least that much capacity could be trimmed in the 2005 round.


Fairchild was included in the bases recommended for closure in the 1993 round, although the recommendation came from the base-closure commission, not the Defense Department, Tortorelli says.


The main issue in 93 was the possible encroachment of residential units in the Airway Heights area, he says, which is an important factor to the military in deciding which bases stay and which close. In fact, there are few homes in Fairchilds two flight paths, which are called accident prevention zones and extend out from the base in cone shapes, but an increase in that small number translated to a high percentage, Tortorelli says. Once Tom Foley, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives at the time, pointed that out to the commission, Fairchild was removed from the list, he says.


Decision hinges on mission


Although the Defense Department takes into consideration many factors when drawing up its base-closure recommendations, the most important criterion is a bases mission, and whether that mission still is critical to the nations military, Zitterkopf says.


In that regard, he and Tortorelli believe Fairchild has an edge.


Fairchild, which is home to the 92nd Air Refueling Wing, is the only air-tanker base in the Inland Northwest and is the Air Mobility Commands only strategic refueling wing near the West Coast, Tortorelli says. The only Air National Guard flying unit in the state is based at Fairchild. So is the Air Forces major survival-training school, which all flying personnel attend.


Tortorelli says the survival school would be especially hard to duplicate elsewhere if Fairchild were to close, because it has use of almost a half-million acres of public and private land that cover a wide variety of terrain, from mountain to desert.


Fairchild is well maintained, Zitterkopf says, and is considered a plum assignment in the military because the Inland Northwest offers military families so much in the way of affordable housing, good schools, and outdoor recreation.


As for regional support, in 2001 Spokane won the Air Mobility Commands Abilene Trophy, which is awarded to the community that has the best relationship with an Air Force facility in its midst, Tortorelli says.


Whats more, Fairchild might become the home of a new generation of tanker aircraft made by Boeing Co. and leased out to the Air Force. That proposed arrangement would result in 32 of the KC-767 aircraft being based at Fairchild and up to $200 million of construction money to build training facilities and hangars for the planes here. A spokesman for Sen. Patty Murray says the lease deal still is being worked on, and we would hope it would come soon, but Zitterkopf cautions that even if the deal happens, it could be several years before those aircraft are operational.


While there are many reasons for optimism concerning Fairchilds future, its important for this community not to rest on the laurels of the past and assume it will work out, Zitterkopf says.


Thats why the chambers armed services committee is lobbying legislators and is planning a campaign to show Inland Northwest residents and businesses how important Fairchild is to the regions future, Tortorelli says. For that effort, the committee has asked Avista Corp. economist Randy Barcus to calculate Fairchilds impact on the community.


Barcus, who will release his report this spring, says Fairchild currently accounts for a whopping 10 percent of the Spokane economy, and for that reason, the decision of the base-closure commission will have huge consequences.


Dramatic growth?


If Fairchild doesnt close, it could grow, possibly dramatically, Tortorelli and Zitterkopf say.


Part of the goal of the 2005 base closure and realignment effort is to combine similar or complementary operations in one locationeven operations among different branches of the military.


The whole idea is to create a more efficient system where you dont have as much infrastructure as you did in the past, says Fortenberry, at Fairchild. The result is expected to be significant cost savings for the military and, by extension, for taxpayers, he says.


While Zitterkopf says its unlikely the Air Force would send more refueling tankers to Fairchild, to avoid concentrating those critical services in fewer places, its possible that other aircraft maintenance or training activities could be transferred here.


You may see other types of aircraft here, he says. You may see other branches of the military brought in.


Says Tortorelli, We believe that with the reduction in all these other physical installations, their functions will have to be relocated to the remaining bases, and Fairchild is a good candidate.