The Grinch who stole the holiday shopping season for the last couple of years seems to have retreated out of Whovilleor out of the Spokane area, anyway, some economic observers and retailers here say.


Strong holiday sales are expected here this year in light of an increase in consumer confidence nationally, says Randy Barcus, chief economist for Spokane-based Avista Corp. Despite the U.S.s continued involvement in the Iraqi conflict and lingering concerns over the national economy, employed people here and elsewhere seem to feel that their jobs are more secure now, he says.


The 93.5 percent of the people who do have jobs here are no longer looking over their shoulder wondering if theyre going to get laid off next month, Barcus says. That changes the spending psychology of consumers.


Preliminary third-quarter retail sales figures show a 14.5 percent growth over the year-earlier period here, compared with 5 percent growth in the third quarter of 2002, Barcus says. He projects that the momentum of the local economy and the stellar third-quarter performance in the retail sector this year will carry through the rest of the fourth quarter.


Barcus says automobile, furniture, appliance, and consumer-electronics dealers are among retail segments expected to perform well here this quarter.


Murray Huppin, president of Spokane-based Huppins Hi-Fi Photo & Video Inc., says hes optimistic about holiday sales. He says a recent remodeling of the companys store here, as well as an advertising campaign and an integration of the companys brick-and-mortar and Internet sales strategies, position Huppins well for the holidays.


Whats created the excitement is that weve really invested in our store, Huppin asserts. Things have been tough in Spokane, and it creates a lot of excitement when a business invests in themselves and the community.


Huppin says he expects digital cameras to be a hot item during the holidays.


BIGresearch LLC, a retail research and consulting company based in Worthington, Ohio, says on its Web site that consumers nationwide are more optimistic and ready to spend some money.


In a survey in early October, BIGresearch LLC found that toy retailers, a sector traditionally associated with the holidays, are poised for a good holiday season, and things also look good for the travel and automobile industries.


Donn Eshelman, manager of Uncles Games, Puzzles & More here, says that stores holiday sales have been strong for the last couple of years because of the sluggish economy.


When times arent economically good, sales at a business like Uncles are usually better, he says. Its because people think of things to do together instead of all going different directions. People will buy a game because its not as expensive as a snowmobile.


Still, a strong economy doesnt hurt, Eshelman says, and the store is projecting a 5 percent increase in holiday sales above last seasons results.


Joel Ferris Jr., president of Joel Inc., projects sales growth of 10 percent to 12 percent during the holiday shopping season at his downtown furniture and household-goods store.


Hopefully thats modest, understanding that the last couple of years were kind of off, he says.


Ferris sparsely stocked the store last year because the company noticed a slowdown in sales in the early fall of 2002, he says. We kind of held back because we had a sense that the customer was not going to be there, Ferris says. It was a modest season; we were holding our own, at best.


This year, though, the store has a lot more product in place, he says. Its a more fun environment.


Ferris says sales of mid-priced items, such as cookware, have picked up at Joel, and the store is having a hard time keeping some items, such as holiday table decorations, in stock. Foot traffic also is up, he says.


One of the things that has definitely helped us is the new two-way revision of Post Street, on which Joel is located, Ferris says. Since mid-August that has made a significant difference as far as customer flow.


Ferris is unsure whether the economy truly is stronger or people simply believe that it is. Regardless, People seem to have more disposable income now. The last couple of years theyve been tight with their wallets, he says.


Says Barcus, When people cut back deliberately, even when their income might not have gone down much, they dont buy that new car or that new clothing. But at some point, you make up for lost time.


Rich Hadley, president and CEO of the Spokane Regional Chamber of Commerce, says its also possible that many parents saved for holiday shopping the tax-credit checks that the U.S. government sent in mid-summer to families with children. Hadley also expects holiday sales to outperform last year.


Theres a better attitude in the community, Hadley says. Theres more positive going on than the community talk recognizes.