If you've ever had trouble finding your car keys, you understand what economic stimulus is all about.
After searching unsuccessfully through every logical nook and cranny of your home, in desperation you begin to cast your eyes anywhere and everywhere. You hope this will prime the pump and help you find them.
Economic stimulus packages, which are tricky and never a sure thing, similarly hope to prime the pump. With the latest worthy objective a revived economy in 2009, 2010, and perhaps beyond, the varied measures include tax cuts, job creation, unemployment benefits, broadband access, alternative energy, and health-care benefits.
How investors can successfully benefit from a batch of stimulants depends on how those components are handled, how long it takes, actual results, and whether national morale improves. So take your time.
"If a stimulus package is able to keep people from losing jobs and actually creates new jobs, it is a positive for a number of different industries, including consumer cyclicals and retailers," says Stuart Freeman, chief equity strategist with Wachovia Securities, in St. Louis.
Industrial stocks have been hit hard during the past year of recession, and with the market down sharply, Freeman says it makes sense to add to your portfolio the stocks of companies that could benefit from stimulus.
"This is going to play out over time and won't be a 'day trade' opportunity for anyone," says Arthur Hogan, director of global equity for Jefferies & Co., in Boston. "Investors needn't worry about getting into a particular basket of stocks early to avoid missing the boat, since we'll find out incrementally where the best places to put money will be."
But he does see investment possibilities. For example, clean or renewal technology firms could directly benefit from the plan and are in general a higher priority under President Barack Obama than during the Bush administration. In addition, the intent to expand broadband access should be a boon to those router firms that handle data.
Here are Hogan's stock recommendations to capitalize on those goals:
First Solar Inc. (FSLR), which designs, manufactures, and sells solar electric power modules using a proprietary semiconductor technology, continues to expand capacity and improve efficiency.
Covanta Holding Corp. (CVA), leading provider of energy-from-waste services in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, operates 57 facilities that convert solid waste, biomass, and landfill gases into renewable energy.
Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), the world's leading supplier of data networking equipment and software, enjoys significant economies of scale and is using the recession for low-cost acquisitions.
Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR), which designs and sells end-to-end networking equipment to the largest global telecommunications providers and government agencies, has plenty of cash and no debt.
Then there is the eagerly awaited return of the American consumer, thanks in part to tax reductions.
"We're going to see more spending at the discount or lower-priced retailers because people will want to get more bang for their buck," predicts James Swanson, chief investment strategist for MFS Investment Management, in Boston, who recommends the stock of retailers Kohl's Corp. (KSS), Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST), and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT).
Obama has talked from the beginning of his campaign about "re-electrifying" the grid system, Swanson notes. Two beneficiaries of this, Swanson believes, will be the giant engineering, construction and maintenance firms Fluor Corp. (FLR) and Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. (JEC).
"Fiscal stimulus is a good thing because the government is actually doing something, and that should help," says David Kudla, chief executive and chief investment strategist for Mainstay Capital Management, in Grand Blanc, Mich. "For example, the medical industry will have indirect, short-term benefits from the stimulus package."
A recent "buy" recommendation of Standard & Poor's Corp. likely to benefit from increased health-care spending is Quest Diagnostics Inc. (DGX), the nation's leading independent provider of diagnostic testing, information, and services. It has a national network of 2,100 patient service centers.
Hogan believes the biggest problem is still the housing market, because if foreclosures keep bringing more and more homes into the market, the glut of existing houses for sale will effectively block recovery.
"Help for the homeowner to get a new mortgage or refinance a mortgage to avoid foreclosure would be of benefit to home builders," Hogan says. "But while I don't see the stimulus package as an immediate positive there, something to help work through the inventory imbalance is a good thing and in the long run beneficial for home builders."
Recent stock "buy" recommendations of Standard & Poor's reflecting a stimulus-related focus on technology, telecommunications, and construction projects include:
Google Inc. (GOOG), whose free search engine is used around the world and generates revenue with each click on a text ad, had solid increases in market share, revenue, and profits last year. It has enormous cash position and brand strength.
Verizon Communications (VZ), the phone company serving about one-third of the U.S. population, also owns 55 percent of Verizon Wireless in a partnership with Vodafone. Growth in television and Internet access are driving its business.
Caterpillar (CAT), maker of earthmoving, construction, and material-handling machinery and engines, will profit from billions of dollars intended for infrastructure projects to stimulate not just the U.S., but economies around the world.