The well-publicized nursing shortage of recent years essentially has been curbed by the recession, though those in the field say that once the economy improves, demand for nurses once again will outstrip supply.

In the meantime, hiring of nurses is down, and new nursing school graduates aren't being wooed by employers like they were earlier, observers say.

"Last year we hired about 280 (nurses) for the full year; we'll be about half of that this year," says Peg Currie, chief nursing officer for both Providence Holy Family Hospital and Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center & Children's Hospital here. Together, the two hospitals employ about 2,000 nurses, she says.

Meanwhile, recent graduates from Washington State University College of Nursing here, which provides upper division undergraduate nursing programs in partnership with Eastern Washington University and Whitworth University, received fewer job offers than new graduates had in recent years, says Anne Hirsch, the college's senior associate dean.

Last December, 52 of 127 graduating students from the WSU College of Nursing here, or 41 percent, had secured jobs by the time they finished school. By contrast, in May of this year, only 18 of 121 graduating nursing students, or about 15 percent, had jobs in hand when they completed their schooling, Hirsch says. In the past, when demand for nurses was high, 80 percent of nursing grads would have offers by the time they graduated, says Hirsch.

Also, the days of having a multitude of offers to choose from have ended, at least for the time being, she says.

"The numbers of job offers they have when they do have offers is fewer," says Hirsch, adding that "students used to have four and five offers each."

Says Providence's Currie, "New grads are probably the most affected, because you can only take so many new grads."

Previously, the health-care industry was gearing up for an acute shortage of nurses, but that's changed at least for the short term as potential patients put off routine or elective medical procedures, and nurses whose retirement savings have been hammered by the poor investment markets have put off retiring, says Linda Tieman, executive director of the Seattle-based Washington Center for Nursing.

"In hospitals, there have been some reductions because of people losing health insurance. A lot of elective surgeries have been canceled," Tieman says.

In part because the recession has caused fewer people to have elective medical procedures and also because of an increase in the number of uninsured patients, Deaconess Medical Center announced in April that it would reduce its staff by about 90 positions, but none of those reductions were direct-care nurses, says spokeswoman Christine Varela.

Tieman says that while pediatric and emergency-care nurses appear still to be in high demand, public health nursing positions have been reduced as state budgets have suffered in the down economy.

Except for a normal seasonal reduction in August when people take vacations, demand for outpatient or elective procedures hasn't dropped significantly at Providence's hospitals here, Currie says. What is happening, however, is that nurses who are on staff are tending to stay in their current positions because of the uncertain economic environment, says Currie.

"I think because of the economy, the turnover rate is lower," she says.

Currie says that over the past year, the turnover rate at Providence hospitals here for nurses has been about 6 percent, compared with the typical turnover rate of a little under 10 percent. She says a lower turnover rate is desirable because it results in a more skilled nursing staff, ultimately creating a better patient-care environment.

"My idea is to try to create a culture that makes nurses want to stay at Providence," Currie says.

Despite the lull in demand for nurses, the supply-and-demand fundamentals still point to a growing shortage statewide over time, Tieman says.

"This is a temporary reprieve," she says.

Tieman says the still-lagging capacity to educate enough nurses to keep up with demand, along with anticipated retirements by nurses who may have stayed in the field longer than they had planned, signal likely increased future demand for nurses.

"The data are very compelling that despite the economy, we're going to have a huge shortage before too long," Tieman says.

She says there's a slowdown in hiring statewide and nationally, and there have been layoffs as well, but those conditions are temporary and reflect the current economy.

"I personally maintain that the minute the economy begins to improve, we'll see (working nurses) cut back to part time or leave their jobs," Tiemen says. She says that in a field where the average age of the workers now is 48.5, such looming retirements will worsen the underlying shortage further.

"No matter how long a person might wish to work, people will have to step out of the work force," Tieman says.

Says WSU's Hirsch, "Some of it is probably related to folks who were ready to retire and decided not to, because of their own financial situation. When (the economy) improves we'll have a rash of retirements."

She says she believes that the tide is turning already. "The hospitals here have started hiring again," Hirsch says.

Currently, Providence is trying to fill about 20 nursing positions related to its expanding critical-care role here, says Currie. Sacred Heart soon will add up to 14 beds to its intensive-care unit, and also is expecting an increase in emergency-room cases as it prepares to receive more Level II trauma cases here. Deaconess Medical Center has dropped its designation as a Level II trauma center.

Another issue that will be facing the industry, Tieman says, is a national push to encourage nurses to get four-year degrees. Tieman says Sacred Heart has already suggested that it would like more of its nurses to have or to seek bachelor's degrees. Currently, Tieman says, 65 percent of nurses begin their careers after having earned an associate's degree.

Providence looks at the issue as one of lifelong learning, Currie says.

"We've got tuition reimbursement programs, and we do encourage (nurses) to take part in the RN to BSN program and into the master's program, and we hope a few will even think about doctoral degrees," Currie says. In the RN to BSN program, nurses who hold an associate's degree can earn a four-year nursing degree.

Space in nursing programs still is lagging, Tieman says. Throughout the state, "we only accept 50 percent of the qualified applicants because we don't have the capacity," she says.

"Luckily, in Spokane you've got Gonzaga University and WSU, which each have bachelor's degrees" in nursing, she adds.

The program at WSU has just accepted 130 students for its new class, but such class-size numbers can't meet the anticipated increase in demand in the long run, Hirsch says.

"Unless we educate 400 new additional nursing students each year, we won't meet the demand for nurses," Hirsch says.

Hirsch says a lack of funds, coupled with a lack of qualified nursing school faculty members, hampers the growth of nursing programs, as do challenges in finding locations for students to do their clinical training.

Just how long the current easing of demand for nurses will last is hard to predict, given the variables of the possible roles of nurses in any health-care reform program and the increased medical needs of the U.S.'s aging population, those in the field say.

"The next five to 10 years is really hard to forecast," Currie says.