Ask which countySpokane County or its Idaho neighbor, Kootenai Countyhas been hit hardest by the recession, and economists and business operators here will say it depends on which measuring stick you use.
Job growthor lack of itis a major indicator that drives other economic factors such as foreclosures and bankruptcies, says Grant Forsyth, associate professor of economics at Eastern Washington University.
On that front, it appears Spokane County suffered more early on in the recession, although Kootenai County might be catching up, Forsyth says.
Kootenai County had total employment of 67,210 in July, down 3.3 percent from the year-earlier month, according to the Idaho state Department of Labor. By comparison, Spokane County's employment was 217,300 in July, down 12,100 jobs, or 5.6 percent from a year earlier.
"Until recently, employment held up more in Kootenai County," Forsyth says. "Employment turned sharply negative here in Spokane County earlier than it did in Kootenai County."
Kootenai County's unemployment rate, however, spiked at 10 percent in July, compared with 8.2 percent in Spokane County.
Kathryn Tacke, a labor economist in the Coeur d'Alene office of the Idaho state Department of Labor, says she was surprised by the July unemployment rate there.
"I think the monthly number is an aberration," she says. "I haven't seen any significant layoffs since April."
Tacke says she doesn't track economic statistics for Spokane County, but by most measures, the recession has hit Kootenai County as hard as the U.S., but not quite as harshly as it has hit the state of Idaho as a whole.
Two measures in which Kootenai County appears to be faring worse than Spokane County are foreclosures and bankruptcies.
The spring Real Estate Report, compiled by the Spokane-Kootenai Real Estate Research Committee, says foreclosure filings on deeds of trust in Kootenai County are on pace to reach 725 in 2009, which would be an increase of 30 percent from 560 total filings in 2008.
The research committee estimates that in Kootenai County, which uses a broader reporting definition, 2,400 foreclosure notices will be filed this year, an increase of 58 percent from 2008.
Randy Barcus, chief economist for Spokane-based Avista Corp., says foreclosures have shot up, particularly in Kootenai County, largely due to the high number of homes built recently in relation to the number of existing homes.
"In the last five years, there's been about as many homes built in Kootenai County as in Spokane County, but Spokane County has a population base five times larger," Barcus says.
Foreclosure rates also are tied to job losses, he adds. The loss of a job in one county, however might affect the foreclosure rate in another county.
"Foreclosures are measured where people live, and jobs are measured where they work," he says, adding that, with bordering counties, one county wouldn't be insulated from the economic misfortunes of the other.
"Cross-border interplay happens in every metropolitan area," Barcus says.
A modest drop in home values, another contributor to foreclosure rates, could be causing some homeowners to owe more than their houses are worth, he says.
The median home sales price in Spokane County for the year through August was $173,750, a decline of 6 percent from the year earlier period, according to the Spokane Association of Realtors Multiple Listings Service. By comparison, the median home sales price in Kootenai County for the year through June was $167,000, a decline of 16 percent from the year-earlier period according to the most recent report provided by the Coeur d'Alene Association of Realtors.
Forsyth says foreclosure numbers might get worse next year.
"The early part of the economic recovery is going to be lackluster, because unemployment will be elevated for awhile," he says. Bankruptcies also remain elevated when employment stagnates or declines, he says.
Bankruptcy cases filed in U.S. Bankruptcy Court, in Spokane, in the first half of the year here, jumped 44 percent compared with the year-earlier period. That is a modest increase, though, compared with the 93 percent rise in filings in the Coeur d'Alene U.S. District Court office.
Barcus points out, though, that Kootenai County had a fast-growing economy leading well into the national recession, and he says he's not surprised at the soaring bankruptcies there.
"When you have fast growth, it's easy for businesses and individuals to get caught up in the momentum," he says. "It's hard to realize that rapid growth can slow significantly and create an unfortunate impact on cash flow, which is often what bankruptcies are about."
While Tacke says Kootenai County enjoyed strong job growth between 2000 and 2007, it may be a while before significant job growth returns.
"Even if the U.S. recession ended tomorrow, the unemployment rate could continue to rise a bit," she says. "It's a lagging indicator and improves more slowly than the overall economy."
Two longtime farm and construction equipment dealers, one in Spokane County and the other in Kootenai County, say they're weathering the recession although they're feeling the pain of the current construction slowdown.
Ken Adams, president of Adams Tractor Co., in Spokane, says business so far this year is 20 percent behind last year's pace, although he didn't expect the company to do as well this year as last year.
"Last year was a banner year," he says. "This year, we're on budget to meet numbers, and the repossession rate is low."
Adams says the 70-year-old business has survived economic hard times before.
"My grandpa started this business in 1929, and that wasn't a good year, either," he says.
The biggest slowdown for the business is sales of excavators, he says. "They are tied to housing and construction. That market is off by half."
Adams has family ties to Coeur d'Alene Tractor, where his cousin, John Adams, is the majority owner.
Bruce Schuh, general manager and minority owner there, says total sales are down by 25 percent from a year ago, and business in 2008 was 8 percent to 10 percent down from 2007.
"We were still profitable in 2008," he says.
Business there is being propped up by sales of snow-removal equipment, he says.
"A lot of people are getting prepared early," he says. "People figured out a way to buy things. My feeling is people have money, but they're not spending it unless they have to."