Slight improvement is expected in job growth in the Spokane metropolitan area next year, although it doesn't appear that average annual employment will rise above its peak level in 2008, Doug Tweedy, regional labor economist here for the Washington state Employment Security Department, says. Ultimately, consumer spending, credit availability, and the ability of employers to operate more efficiently with the same staff will determine the 2010 job picture.

Average total full-time employment in Spokane County through October of this year was 211,900, down nearly 10,000 jobs from 221,860 in the year-earlier period, Tweedy says. He says the job losses came in every industry.

Some job opportunities will occur as employers replace workers and emerging markets create jobs for some experienced workers who currently are out of work, Tweedy says. Jobs in the research, design, and manufacturing of energy technologies have begun to grow, and that trend likely will continue, he says. He also predicts job growth in occupations related to aviation, waste management, remediation, and clean water.

Grant Forsyth, an economics professor at Eastern Washington University, predicts that nonagricultural employment in Spokane and Kootenai counties together will grow by 1 percent or less in 2010, compared with a 3 percent combined decline this year. He doesn't see sustained job growth above 2 percent until the latter half of 2011.

Meanwhile, "employment growth will have to be above 2 percent before we will see significant declines in the regional unemployment rate, which means unemployment will remain high until 2012," he says. "I think when economists think about a 'jobless recovery' they are referring to a prolonged period of very weak employment growth, rather than no employment growth."

Forsyth says the economic expansion experienced here from 2001 to 2007 was largely a jobless recovery until 2005.

"Most of our employment growth came in the 2005-2007 period, a good three years into the expansion," he says. "I think we will see something similar this time around."

Forsyth says it might take until 2013 for a full job recovery in Spokane and Kootenai counties. Some sectors will do better next year than others in terms of job growth, including manufacturers that serve international markets, particularly Asia and Canada; companies that provide health-care services; and firms that offer accounting and legal services to business clients, he says.

Tom Droz, regional director here for Manpower Inc., says 9 percent of the companies here interviewed by Manpower in its latest employment outlook survey said they plan to hire more employees in the first quarter of 2010. That percentage was down from the 13 percent who planned to hire more people a year ago. Fifteen percent of respondents expect to cut jobs in the first quarter, while 72 percent expect to maintain current levels, and 4 percent aren't certain of their plans, he says.

Droz expects to see employers asking employees to work longer hours instead of hiring more people.